Evidence and Belief
You might wonder why humanity hasn't made significant action towards our climate problem. It could be that folks do not understand the science very well. It could be that the implications of the science conflict with our values and beliefs and we disregard the science. It could be that interested parties are deliberately publishing material meant to confuse citizens and cast doubt on scientific consensus.
Motivated Numeracy Question
Researchers asked the questions:
Do folks with higher degrees of scientific ability accept science more readily?
Does our minds desire to protect our existing beliefs reduce our acceptance of new data?
Motivated Numeracy Result
People with higher science and math ability were more likely to get math problems wrong when they conflicted with their beliefs.
This suggests that science education is not the key to climate change acceptance but rather understanding human psychology.
Team-Based Epistemology
Evidence is emerging that our processing of new scientific knowledge (epistemology) is strongly influenced by our existing beliefs and our social groups (team).
Deflategate
In the 2014 NFL playoffs evidence emerged that Tom Brady and the Patriots deflated footballs to give themselves an advantage.
The percentage of belief in the innocence of Brady and the Patriots was different for New England residents compared to the nation.
The majority opinionn of one of these two groups must be wrong.
Polling Data
Polling shows strong differences of opinion on climate science and the honesty of scientists according to political party.
The majority opinionn of one of these two groups must be wrong.
Pelosi and Gingrich Video
There was recently bipartisan support in the US congress for climate change policy. Why do you think this has changed?
Implicatory Denial
If we accept that our climate is becoming more violent and that human emissions are the cause several implications emerge.
The free market has failed and will produce an enormous economic loss
International cooperation and collectivism will be necessary
Doubt and Scientific Debate
In "Merchants of Doubt", historian Naomi Oreskes catalogs how corporations engaged in campaigns to confuse the public about the science of tobacco, global warming, and other issues.
Terms
Misinformation
Bad information that isn't necessarily malicious.
Disinformation
Bad information with the intent to deceive.
Lying
Bad information with the intent to deceive.
Propaganda
Biased or misleading information used to promote a political agenda.
Fake News
Originally, completely invented news stories mostly written to make a profit.
Guarding against bias
How will you guard against misinformation when it is designed for your mind?
Remember that internet companies have a very good idea of what you believe through what you choose to read.
Evidence suggests that curiosity about scientific truths and a willingness to be wrong reduce the effects of bias and denial in human thinking.
What should you do to encourage open-mindedness and curiosity in your thinking? What is the most deeply held belief you are willing to admit you might be wrong about?
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